Prediction market operators can dress it up however they like in court filings, but the public isn’t fooled. A new Ipsos poll conducted with the American Institute for Boys and Men has found that 61% of Americans view platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling, not investing. No amount of legal gymnastics changes what punters already know.

High Risk, Low Trust

The numbers paint a clear picture. Among those familiar with prediction markets, 91% recognize them as financially risky. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for an industry trying to position itself as sophisticated financial innovation.

Trust levels are even worse.

Only 9% of respondents believe these platforms can prevent insider trading, while 61% lack confidence altogether. When the overwhelming majority thinks your market integrity is questionable, you’ve got serious problems.

Still a Niche Product

Despite the media hype, prediction markets remain far from mainstream. Just 21% of survey respondents said they were somewhat familiar with how these platforms work. Compare that to 35% awareness for sportsbooks, which have had years to establish themselves.

The user base skews young, exclusively under 50 according to the survey. That’s valuable long-term demographic territory, granted, but hardly the broad appeal operators might claim. Interestingly, earlier Truist Securities analysis suggested higher uptake in states without regulated sports betting. This latest poll, though, found no real difference between regulated and unregulated jurisdictions.

Regulation: When, Not If

The public has made its position clear on oversight. A solid 59% want prediction markets regulated like gambling companies. That’s the straightforward answer. Things get muddier when you dig deeper, with 52% saying they should be treated as financial products and 37% supporting an entirely new regulatory framework.

What’s not in doubt is the need for some form of regulation. Two-thirds of respondents, 66%, said leaving prediction markets completely unregulated would be a bad idea. The industry can argue semantics all it wants, but the writing is on the wall.

Public Perception Problem

Here’s the real kicker: only 4% of Americans view prediction markets as good for society. Just 4%. Meanwhile, 38% consider them outright harmful, with another 34% sitting neutral. That’s a perception problem money can’t easily fix.

Prediction market platforms are fighting an uphill battle on multiple fronts. Legal challenges. Regulatory uncertainty. And now clear public skepticism about their value and integrity. The technology might be innovative, but if you can’t convince people you’re offering something beyond a fancy betting interface, you’re always going to struggle for legitimacy.