Light & Wonder CEO Warns Industry on Prediction Markets as iGaming Expansion Stalls

Light & Wonder’s chief Matt Wilson laid out a pretty sobering picture of where the gambling industry is headed. Speaking at the Nevada Society of Certified Public Accountants Gaming Conference this week at Circa Las Vegas, he flagged prediction markets as an emerging threat that operators simply can’t ignore.

Wilson painted a stark portrait of a bifurcated market. Premium properties like Wynn, ARIA, and Bellagio are thriving with record profits. Lower-tier Strip casinos? They’re struggling to keep pace. The reason, according to Wilson, is straightforward enough: we’re living in a K-shaped economy where wealthy players keep spending despite inflation and rising living costs, while lower-income groups face mounting financial pressure.

The iGaming Miscalculation

But here’s where things get uncomfortable. Wilson made a candid admission about Light & Wonder’s botched forecast on regulated iGaming expansion. Back in 2022, the company set an ambitious target: grow EBITDA from 900 million to 1.4 billion by 2025, banking on three major states launching iGaming in that window. Not one has materialized. Only seven states offer regulated iGaming today, and that glacial pace has thrown a wrench into long-term planning across the entire sector.

The Prediction Market Problem

Wilson’s real concern, though, centres on prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted valuations that dwarf DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the past six months, growth has accelerated sharply. And Wilson isn’t mincing words about what’s happening: this money is coming straight out of players’ traditional gambling budgets.

Light & Wonder doesn’t directly compete in prediction markets, but the company watches the space with obvious unease. Wilson made his argument clear: the industry needs to coordinate on understanding the model’s expansion and potentially pushing back. He also suggested prediction markets sit uncomfortably close to regulated gambling, despite what the platforms claim.

Interestingly, Light & Wonder isn’t alone in wanting tighter oversight. Agricultural organisations have recently urged the CFTC to examine prediction markets tied to commodity prices, citing real risks to traditional futures trading.

Bottom line: operators need to adapt to a slower iGaming landscape while keeping a close eye on an emerging competitor that’s moving far faster than anyone saw coming.

What the team thinks

CARL MITCHELL: Wilson’s warning about prediction markets is spot on, but I’d argue the real issue isn’t the markets themselves, it’s that operators have gotten complacent. The bifurcation he describes mirrors what we’ve seen in the UK for years, where innovation separates the sharp operators from the dinosaurs still relying on outdated player acquisition models.

SHEENA McALLISTER: Carl makes a fair point, though I’d add that prediction markets exist in a regulatory grey zone that keeps compliance teams up at night. The UKGC hasn’t issued clear guidance on whether these fall under gambling jurisdiction, and that uncertainty is creating a two-tier system where compliant operators are handicapped against unregulated rivals.

CARL MITCHELL: Exactly right, and that’s where the real threat lies. Premium operators like those Wilson mentioned can absorb regulatory costs and still turn profits, but mid-market casinos get squeezed from both sides. They can’t compete on luxury amenities and they’re being undercut by agile, unregulated platforms offering prediction markets without compliance overhead.

SHEENA McALLISTER: Which brings us back to regulation needing to move faster. The UKGC and equivalent bodies abroad need to establish clear rules around prediction markets before they become an enforcement nightmare. A level playing field actually helps quality operators more than it hurts them, because it removes the competitive advantage of operating in the shadows.

Wazdan Expands Ontario Footprint Through St8 Aggregation Partnership

Wazdan’s just locked in a significant distribution win in Ontario through a new content partnership with St8, the aggregation platform connecting suppliers with regulated operators across Canada’s most mature iGaming market.

High-Performing Titles Now Live

The deal pushes Wazdan’s portfolio directly into St8’s operator network in the province. We’re talking Mighty Fish: Blue Marlin, 36 Coins, and Mighty Wild: Panther Grand Diamond Edition all going live. But it’s not just the base games. St8 operators also pick up access to Wazdan’s proprietary engagement mechanics: Cash to Infinity, Sticky to Infinity, and Hold the Jackpot.

For aggregation platforms, the logic is simple. High-performing content drives player retention and operator margins. Wazdan’s track record with these titles means St8’s regulated partners are adding proven revenue generators to their lobbies, not experimental fluff.

Strategic Timing in a Growing Market

Ontario’s still Canada’s flagship regulated iGaming jurisdiction. The market keeps maturing, operator competition’s fierce, and player acquisition costs keep climbing. Fresh, quality content? That’s a real competitive advantage for licensed platforms right now.

The timing’s clever too. Both companies position themselves ahead of Alberta’s launch in July 2026, when the province becomes Canada’s second private-operator iGaming market. Wazdan’s already flagged North America as a core expansion pillar, and moving content through established aggregation partners like St8 smooths the path into new provinces as they regulate.

Broader Roadmap Signals

Wazdan’s 2026 strategy goes wider than just regulatory expansion. The studio’s exploring crossover opportunities around the FIFA World Cup, which signals a focus on timely, event-driven content that taps into seasonal player interest spikes. That approach complements the core portfolio and explains why aggregators like St8 find real value in the partnership.

For operators choosing platforms, this deal tells you something: content depth and engagement features are table stakes now. But partnerships that secure tier-one supplier access at scale? Those actually differentiate.

What the team thinks

Carl Mitchell says:

Wazdan’s push into Ontario through St8 is smart play, no question about it, but what caught my eye is they’re leading with the Mighty Fish and Diamond Edition titles, which tells me they’re banking on that aspirational player segment rather than the bread-and-butter mid-volatility crowd that usually drives consistent operator margins. The aggregation route makes commercial sense for any supplier wanting quick market access, but the real test will be whether these games can maintain player retention beyond the launch window, something we don’t always see clearly reported in these expansion announcements. Still, it’s encouraging to see substantive portfolio moves in Ontario rather than just licensing shuffles, because that’s where genuine operator value gets built.

Dutch Lottery Warns Tax Squeeze Is Driving Players to Black Market

The Dutch Lottery has sounded the alarm over spiralling tax rates, arguing that successive increases have squeezed the regulated sector so hard that players are being pushed toward illegal operators. Chief executive Arjan Blok warned that further tax hikes would only worsen the problem, undermining both player protection and funding for good causes.

The Numbers Tell a Grim Story

The financial impact is stark. The lottery’s 2025 revenue fell to EUR 688.9 million, down 5% year-on-year. More striking still is the swing from a EUR 30.9 million profit in 2024 to a EUR 7.7 million loss this year. That’s not a blip. That’s the shape of a sector struggling under the weight of policy.

The cause is straightforward. The Netherlands has jacked up its gambling tax twice in quick succession, raising it from 30.5% to 34.2% a year ago, then jumping again to 37.8% more recently. At those rates, legal operators simply can’t compete on prize value or product appeal.

When Regulation Backfires

Blok’s core argument deserves serious consideration. When legal gaming becomes less attractive than the alternative, you don’t eliminate gambling. You just move it underground. The lottery chief points out that the Netherlands’ channelization rate now sits below 50% in terms of gross gaming revenue, meaning the regulated market is losing ground fast.

This creates a perverse outcome: the very regulation designed to protect players ends up driving vulnerable ones toward operators with no oversight whatsoever. That’s regulatory failure dressed up as consumer protection.

A Question for Policymakers

Blok isn’t arguing for a tax holiday. He’s making a subtler point: regulation needs to maintain balance. Drive the tax rate high enough and you erode the entire rationale for having a legal sector. The money that funds good causes dries up. Player protections evaporate. And black market operators gain market share.

The Netherlands is now considering even tighter ad restrictions, potentially including an outright advertising ban. Paired with further tax increases, that combination could finish the job of rendering the legal industry uncompetitive. Whether policymakers recognise that risk is another question.

What the team thinks

Philippa Ashworth says:

Baz raises a critical point about tax elasticity in the Dutch market, though I’d argue the lottery’s framing deserves scrutiny, the real issue isn’t taxation itself but the *progressive* nature of how it’s applied across regulated operators. What’s genuinely concerning is that a 5% revenue decline suggests market contraction rather than mere migration to black market alternatives, which points to either product stagnation or broader consumer shift away from traditional lottery products, a distinction regulators need to understand before reflexively cutting taxes. The Dutch government should indeed examine whether current tax structures are optimal, but they’d be wise to demand evidence that illegal operators are actually capturing lost players rather than accepting the industry’s standard assumption that regulation always drives migration.

Alberta Confirms Dan Keene as Permanent iGaming CEO Ahead of Market Launch

Alberta’s iGaming Corporation has made Dan Keene’s interim CEO role permanent, effective April 2026, as the province prepares to launch its regulated online gambling market. The move signals real confidence in Keene’s ability to build the framework for what Alberta hopes will match Ontario’s commercial gaming success.

Keene Brings Solid Track Record in Alberta Gaming

Keene isn’t walking into the AiGC role cold. He spent years at the Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis Commission (AGLC), most recently as vice president of gaming. In that position, he oversaw retail gaming operations, online platforms, loyalty programs, and compliance across the province. His fingerprints are all over several major achievements, including the creation of Winner’s Edge, Alberta’s first province-wide casino loyalty program, and stewardship of PlayAlberta.ca, currently the only legal online gambling site for local players.

Before that, Keene managed casino products at the AGLC, where he led the team responsible for selecting games across Alberta’s casino floors and VLT network. That’s the kind of operational depth you want in someone steering a new regulatory body.

What This Means for Alberta’s iGaming Expansion

The permanent appointment matters because it provides continuity as Alberta gets ready to open its market to commercial operators. The province has signaled it wants to build a competitive, regulated space that protects players while attracting legitimate gaming businesses. That’s no small task, and it requires someone who understands both the regulatory side and how gaming operations actually work.

Sanjeev Kad, chair of the AiGC board, made the expected comments about Keene’s expertise and proven track record. But here’s the thing: Alberta’s betting the right person is already in position.

Setting Realistic Expectations

Worth knowing: Alberta isn’t starting from scratch. PlayAlberta.ca already gives the province a foothold in the online space. What’s changing is the commercial side. Opening the market to licensed operators should broaden the player base and increase competition, which typically benefits consumers through better promotions and product variety. Ontario’s experience shows there’s real revenue upside when you get the regulatory framework right.

Whether Keene and the AiGC can replicate that success? We’ll see. The fundamentals look encouraging, though. You’ve got someone in the hot seat who knows the AGLC playbook, understands Alberta’s player base, and has already proven he can build functioning programs from the ground up.

What the team thinks

Philippa Ashworth says:

Keene’s permanent appointment is a shrewd move that telegraphs Alberta’s serious intentions in the competitive iGaming space, though the April 2026 timeline feels cautiously extended given Ontario’s head start and the operational momentum already building in other provinces. What’s particularly noteworthy here is that his AGLC background positions him to navigate the regulatory tightrope between market liberalization and consumer protection, a balance that will ultimately determine whether Alberta attracts the tier-one operators needed to challenge Ontario’s dominance. The real test won’t be the appointment itself, but whether Alberta’s launch framework can differentiate itself through superior technology infrastructure or player protections, rather than simply replicating the Ontario playbook at a 12-month lag.

MGM’s Las Vegas Buffet Era Ends: Three Major Properties Closing by 2027

MGM Resorts is pulling the plug on its remaining Las Vegas buffets. Three major properties are set to close by Q2 2027: the Excalibur and Bellagio buffets, plus the Wicked Spoon at Cosmopolitan. The company’s exit from the all-you-can-eat model that once defined casino dining is now complete.

The MGM Grand Buffet shuts down on 31 May 2026, following a meeting between Casino.org writer Scott Roeben and Mike Neubecker, COO of MGM Grand, Excalibur, New York-New York, Mandalay Bay, and Luxor. That’s the intel he shared first.

The Economics of Change

What’s really driving this? Guest preferences have shifted decisively towards premium dining. They want quality, not quantity. And operators are following the money, frankly. Buffets may draw people in, but they’ve always been loss-leaders for casinos: cheap food priced well below cost just to keep players in the property and gambling.

For MGM, closing these buffets makes pure business sense. Investing table space and kitchen resources into higher-margin dining experiences hits differently when guests increasingly want quality over volume.

What Replaces the Buffet?

MGM’s new dining strategy pivots to upscale all-you-can-eat experiences priced around $175 per person. Think premium seafood, carved meats, unlimited beverages. That’s fine-dining territory, a world away from the casual mass-market space buffets once occupied.

The Workforce Question

Roughly 500 employees across these properties face an uncertain future. MGM hasn’t clarified whether staff will be reassigned to other roles within the resorts or if positions disappear altogether. That’s a real gap in the conversation, and it matters over the next 18 months.

The buffet’s decline in Las Vegas tells a bigger story about how casino operators view their role in hospitality. It’s not about volume and retention through cheap meals anymore. It’s about premium experiences that justify higher spending across the board.

Clark County Backs 10-Year Las Vegas Grand Prix Extension Through 2037

Clark County commissioners have voted to extend the Las Vegas Grand Prix contract with Formula 1 through 2037, cementing the circuit’s place on the city’s calendar for another decade. The decision builds on two successful events that have generated an estimated $2.5 billion in economic activity for the region.

Strong Numbers, Real Friction

The financial case for the extension is straightforward enough. Increased visitor spending, job creation, and tax revenue during race week have given county officials solid ground to justify the commitment. Employment opportunities and the broader economic windfall have proven substantial enough to outweigh initial skepticism.

Economics don’t tell the whole story, though. Business owners along the 3.8-mile circuit route face genuine disruption. Three months of annual construction creates real strain on operations, traffic flow, and daily life for locals. That pain is tangible. And it’s not going away.

The Local Pushback

Criticism has been sharp. Local outlets have argued that the decision prioritises the interests of a handful of major casinos over the concerns of Strip workers and small business operators whose livelihoods depend on uninterrupted operations. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority’s $10 million annual taxpayer contribution has drawn particular scrutiny from those questioning whether the burden falls unfairly on ordinary residents and workers.

Vital Vegas, a prominent voice on local issues, put it bluntly on social media. Ordinary residents, they suggested, have been sidelined in favour of corporate interests.

Promises of Improvement

County officials haven’t dismissed these concerns outright. Commissioner Michael Naft and others have publicly acknowledged that the construction schedule needs tightening. The goal is clear: compress the build window and plan more carefully to reduce disruption without sacrificing event quality.

The 2024 event showed some progress on this front, according to officials. If commissioners can deliver meaningful improvements to logistics and scheduling, the extension might eventually feel less like a burden on locals and more like a manageable trade-off for genuine economic benefit.

Whether they can actually pull that off, though? That’s the real question.

BGaming Marries Classic Stepper Design with Modern Mechanics in Hot Rocket 5x 3x 2x

BGaming has launched Hot Rocket 5x 3x 2x, a new addition to its Rocket Eruption franchise that blends the familiar comfort of traditional stepper slots with contemporary bonus mechanics and high volatility potential.

Bridging Two Eras of Slot Design

The game sits squarely in BGaming’s #Classics series, which focuses on recreating the nostalgic appeal of land-based machines whilst layering in modern features players have come to expect from digital slots. It’s a balancing act many providers attempt, but few execute convincingly.

Hot Rocket 5x 3x 2x sets the action on a volcanic island. That premise gives designers room to incorporate animated rocket symbols and eruption-themed visuals. The aesthetic leans retro, but the mechanics are decidedly current.

Mechanics Built for Modern Play

The core draw here centres on random multiplier symbols landing across all reels. Players encounter 2x, 3x, and 5x multipliers that boost payouts during regular spins, while Wild symbols deliver payouts up to 500x. This creates meaningful variance without requiring specialist knowledge to understand.

The headline feature is Jackpot Spins, triggered when Flashy Rocket symbols appear attached to standard symbols. During these bonus rounds, matching two jackpot symbols and linking them with a collector symbol awards one of five fixed jackpots. BGaming hasn’t disclosed the prize pool, which is fairly standard practice for new releases.

Strategic Franchise Expansion

Igor Bondarenko, BGaming’s product owner of publishing, positioned the release as a response to the strong performance of Rocket Eruption: Triple Blast. Rather than simply rehash that success, the studio wanted to tap into the ongoing nostalgia market for classic slot design.

That instinct makes commercial sense. Operators know their player base includes enthusiasts who value simplicity and direct mechanics over elaborate storytelling. Pairing that with contemporary volatility features and bonus potential gives Hot Rocket 5x 3x 2x genuine appeal across different player segments.

The release follows BGaming’s recent soccer-themed launch, Ultras, suggesting the provider is maintaining steady content output across varied themes and mechanics.

EveryMatrix Wins Alberta License as Province Gears Up for iGaming Launch

EveryMatrix has secured its Alberta license from the AGLC, positioning the content supplier to tap into another significant North American market as the province prepares to go live with regulated iGaming later this year.

Expanding the North American Footprint

This approval marks EveryMatrix’s latest jurisdictional win in Canada, building on existing licenses in Ontario and a growing presence across the US. The Alberta market represents a valuable expansion opportunity for the tech-focused supplier, which has already established itself in multiple regulated territories including New Jersey, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.

The timing is significant. Alberta’s iGaming launch is scheduled for July, giving EveryMatrix a window to establish its operations ahead of what’s expected to be a competitive market entry. For operators in the province, the company’s arrival means immediate access to established technology infrastructure and gaming content.

What EveryMatrix Brings to the Table

EveryMatrix isn’t a single-product supplier. The group offers its proprietary tier-1 tech stack, in-house games from Fantasma Games, and aggregated third-party content. That breadth matters because Alberta operators will have options without needing to juggle multiple vendor relationships from day one.

Rani Axon, the company’s North America market manager, highlighted the regulatory angle in a statement, noting that the approval demonstrates EveryMatrix’s compliance credentials and readiness to meet jurisdiction-specific requirements. That’s not marketing fluff, frankly. Canada’s regulatory environment is tighter than many US states, and having a vendor already familiar with that landscape gives operators one less headache.

What It Means for the Market

Alberta’s iGaming launch has been anticipated for months. Major suppliers signing on ahead of the official rollout signals confidence in the market’s potential and suggests operators are already lining up their partners. EveryMatrix’s approval is part of that groundwork, but it also means less waiting around once the market opens. Operators can integrate and go live faster.

For EveryMatrix, Alberta is another data point in a North American expansion strategy that’s clearly working. The company has positioned itself as a serious player in regulated markets. This license adds another trophy to the collection.

What the team thinks

Philippa Ashworth says:

EveryMatrix’s Alberta approval is a shrewd strategic move, but Hartley’s piece undersells the real story here, which is the accelerating consolidation of content supplier power across North American jurisdictions. What we’re really watching is how tech-enabled platform providers like EveryMatrix are systematically building regulatory relationships before markets fully mature, giving them first-mover advantages that smaller competitors will struggle to match. The real question investors should be asking isn’t whether Alberta represents a “valuable expansion,” but whether EveryMatrix’s multi-jurisdictional licensing velocity signals they’re betting on continental market harmonization that regulators haven’t publicly committed to yet.

Kalshi Backs NCPG with £2m Trader Wellbeing Push

Prediction markets platform Kalshi is putting its money where its mouth is. The company’s committing £2 million over two years to support the National Council on Problem Gambling’s work on trader health and safety. It’s a big move that signals how the sector is actually maturing around harm mitigation, even as the broader prediction markets industry faces regulatory headwinds across multiple US states.

New Category, Leadership Recognition

The NCPG has created a fresh membership tier called Financial Services and Trading, and Kalshi’s become its first member at Platinum level. Plus, the company joins the organisation’s Leadership Circle, which the NCPG says reflects a meaningful contribution to its work.

That money will fuel the new Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative. The goal: help traders participate safely whilst expanding education campaigns around problematic behaviour warning signs. The NCPG is clear that this kind of cross-sector collaboration matters as markets diversify and evolve.

Innovation Plus Responsibility

Heather Maurer, NCPG’s executive director, framed it straightforwardly: innovation and responsibility need to develop together. “Kalshi’s engagement demonstrates a commitment to mitigating harm before it occurs and ensuring support resources are accessible when they are needed,” she said.

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co-founder and CEO, echoed the sentiment. He acknowledged that prediction markets carry genuine risks despite their appeal, and said the company wants to set a new standard for responsible trading through education, tools, and protections. Other major retail trading platforms should follow suit, he added. The hope is they will.

Context Matters

The timing is worth noting. Whilst Kalshi invests in harm reduction, the prediction markets sector faces serious pushback in several states. Regulators have questioned whether these products are genuinely trading instruments or something closer to gambling. Kalshi maintains its position that prediction markets are trading, not gaming. But that regulatory battle continues regardless of how much the company invests in consumer safeguards.

Still, this move shows a company willing to engage with legitimate concerns about participant welfare. Whether that’s enough to shift broader regulatory sentiment? We’ll see.

Sporttrade Quits US Market, Shutting Down by End of June

Sporttrade is pulling the plug on its US online sports betting operations. The final shutdown date is June 26. It’s a dramatic reversal for a company that spent years chasing CFTC approval to operate as a prediction market platform across American states.

Timeline and Customer Impact

The company announced the closure on May 15, but the deadlines vary depending on where you are. New Jersey customers must withdraw funds by May 25. Players in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia get until June 25. After June 26, the platform simply vanishes. Anyone who doesn’t withdraw will receive checks mailed to their registered address.

What Went Wrong

Sporttrade’s US journey reads like a cautionary tale about timing in the betting space. The company launched with a prediction market model years before the CFTC actually regulated that sector. Once the regulatory framework finally arrived, competitors suddenly had a massive advantage: they could operate in all 50 states while Sporttrade remained trapped in traditional gambling licensing arrangements. That’s a hell of a disadvantage to climb out from.

So they pivoted. Applied for CFTC approval as a designated contract market and clearing organisation. Turns out, that process was both expensive and painfully slow.

The Prediction Market Problem

Meanwhile, prediction markets themselves became increasingly contentious. Traditional gambling regulators didn’t like them. Tribal gaming entities didn’t like them. Industry players grew uncomfortable with how fast the sector was expanding. And concerns about insider trading certainly haven’t helped matters.

For Sporttrade, it all added up. Regulatory delays, competitive disadvantage, and broader industry scepticism about prediction markets made the US market untenable. Sometimes being first to the table just means you’re sitting there longest while everyone else figures out the rules.

What the team thinks

Philippa Ashworth says:

Baz has captured the immediate drama of Sporttrade’s exit, but what’s equally instructive is what this tells us about the structural challenges facing prediction market platforms in the US regulatory environment, where the CFTC approval pathway remains murky and state-by-state compliance costs continue to outpace addressable markets. The real story here isn’t just another failed sportsbook, but rather a cautionary tale about how even well-capitalized operators can miscalculate the runway needed to navigate American fragmentation, something traditional sportsbooks solved through established licensing frameworks that prediction markets simply don’t enjoy. That said, Sporttrade’s departure may actually accelerate consolidation among remaining players while opening the door for competitors willing to invest in the long regulatory game.