DraftKings has taken a real financial hit during the World Cup group stage. Bank of America analysts estimate the US sportsbook operator lost around $50 million as bettors cashed in on some surprising results and standout performances.

The losses stung, especially given what analysts expected to be a lucrative tournament. Deutsche Bank had forecast DraftKings and its competitors would handle approximately $1.1 billion in total World Cup betting volume. Strong payouts to winning punters, though, have eaten significantly into those potential margins.

The USMNT Problem

For US sportsbooks, the American men’s national team’s unexpected success has been the biggest headache. According to Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover, the USMNT’s progression to the knockout stage represents the single largest liability most major US operators are facing. That’s particularly stinging given pre-tournament odds of 50-1 to 60-1 on a US victory, which have since tightened to around 20-1.

Only 6% of American bettors backed their home country before the tournament kicked off. But as the team advances, the stakes have risen considerably, and bigger losses loom if the Americans continue their run.

England’s Expensive Journey

England’s path through the group stage has proven costly for bookmakers on both sides of the Atlantic. Around 20% of global outright World Cup bets backed the Three Lions to win it all, with punters loading up at pre-tournament odds of 6-1 to 7-1. Those odds have since drifted to 8-1 or 9-1 as Gareth Southgate’s side advanced.

Flutter’s Paddy Power and FanDuel operations paid out nearly $5.5 million to UK-based punters after England’s opening victory over Croatia alone. The Ghana draw that followed helped restore some balance to the books, but across the industry, the cumulative impact was hard to ignore.

When Stars Align (Against the House)

June 23 was brutal. On that single day, Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé all scored twice. The combination triggered massive payouts on accumulator bets, where punters combined outright results with specific goalscorer predictions. Some bettors who backed all three players to score at least twice reportedly landed significant windfalls.

A Calculated Loss

Despite the short-term pain, major sportsbooks appear willing to absorb multimillion-dollar losses if it accelerates customer acquisition during the tournament. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins previously called the World Cup “a huge focal point for customer acquisition,” while Flutter’s Peter Jackson described it as “the biggest betting opportunity we’ll have ever seen.”

According to Citizens analyst Jordan Bender, sportsbooks, brokerages, and prediction market operators are spending hundreds of millions collectively to win new customers as the tournament progresses. In practice, that $50 million loss might simply be the cost of entry into an expanded market.

DraftKings declined to comment on the Bank of America estimates, though the operator’s broader strategy of customer acquisition during major sporting events remains unchanged.

What the team thinks

PHILIPPA ASHWORTH: Carl’s piece highlights a crucial vulnerability in the sportsbook operating model during major tournaments. The $50 million loss suggests DraftKings and competitors underpriced their risk exposure on group stage volatility, a lesson that will likely reshape how they structure odds and liability management for future mega-events.

BAZ HARTLEY: What interests me more is whether punters actually benefited from fair value here or if this was just lucky timing. A $50 million swing doesn’t automatically mean bettors got better odds, it might just mean some genuinely unexpected results hit the books hard. Either way, it’s worth asking whether the average player saw better value during the World Cup compared to regular season betting.

PHILIPPA ASHWORTH: That’s a fair pushback, Baz. The operational challenge here is that sportsbooks use sophisticated hedging strategies to manage exactly this kind of exposure, so if DraftKings took a $50 million hit, it suggests either their modeling failed or the market moved faster than their adjustment capabilities allowed. For the industry overall, this is actually healthy because it pressures operators to improve their risk infrastructure.

BAZ HARTLEY: I’d add that transparency matters enormously here. If operators are taking massive losses and raising their margins elsewhere to compensate, customers deserve to know that’s happening. The World Cup might be the villain in this story for DraftKings, but punters should understand whether they’re paying for those losses through tighter odds on everyday markets.