Sportsbooks are holding their ground against prediction markets, and frankly, it’s not particularly close. New research from Truist Securities shows DraftKings pulling ahead when punters have the choice between traditional betting and event-trading platforms like Kalshi.

Twenty percent of survey respondents named DraftKings as their top pick overall. Kalshi trails just behind. The gap widens significantly when you look at actual deposit data in states where both options operate legally, though. Kalshi captures only a fraction of user funds where DraftKings already holds a sportsbook license.

User Experience Drives the Divide

Participants pointed to several factors influencing their preferences. The overall user experience topped the list, followed by platform performance, interface design, and bonus structures.

These are areas where established sportsbooks have had years to refine their approach.

Prediction markets do find their niche, though. When the focus narrows specifically to event contracts rather than sports wagering, Kalshi comes out on top, even beating prediction market offerings from traditional sportsbook operators.

Geography Tells the Real Story

The strongest engagement with prediction markets comes from states without legal sports betting. California and Texas showed particularly high usage rates, which makes perfect sense. If you can’t legally bet on the Lakers or Cowboys through a sportsbook, you’ll find another outlet.

New York proved an interesting outlier. Despite having a mature, competitive sportsbook market, the state recorded notably high prediction market participation. Whether that’s down to the heavy tax burden on New York sportsbooks driving punters elsewhere or simply a more engaged betting population overall remains unclear.

A Stopgap, Not a Revolution

The survey data suggests prediction markets work primarily as a substitute in restricted markets rather than a genuine long-term competitor. Many respondents indicated they’d switch to traditional sportsbooks if their state legalized sports betting.

That’s not surprising.

Prediction markets offer a workaround, but they’re not a like-for-like replacement for the sports betting experience most punters want.

Who’s Actually Using Prediction Markets?

The demographic profile challenges some assumptions. Rather than being dominated by younger users, prediction market participants skew older than expected. Most fall between their late twenties and late forties, with particularly strong representation in the 30 to 39 age bracket.

Education and income levels run high. A significant portion hold university degrees, and many reported household incomes exceeding £75,000 annually. This suggests prediction markets appeal to a more affluent, educated demographic than might be assumed.

The findings paint a clear picture. Prediction markets are gaining traction in underserved regions and among specific demographics, but when given the choice, most punters still prefer the established sportsbook experience.

DraftKings and its competitors aren’t losing sleep over event-trading platforms just yet.