It’s official: Japan IR bidding to resume in May 2027

It’s official: Japan IR bidding to resume in May 2027

Japan’s cabinet has confirmed that a second round of integrated resort licence applications will open on 7 May 2027. That gives the country’s long-stalled casino market another crack at realising its potential. The six-month bidding window runs until 5 November and offers local governments the chance to compete for the two remaining licences from the original three-resort framework.

The move comes after a disappointing first round that wrapped up in 2023 with just one approved project: the $10 billion MGM Osaka, a joint venture between MGM Resorts International and domestic partner Orix Corp. The resort is scheduled to open in 2030. Bloomberg estimates it could generate gross gaming revenue of $5.9 billion annually.

From Sky-High Projections to Reality Check

When Japan enacted the Integrated Resort Implementation Law in 2018, market forecasts bordered on euphoric. Early analyst projections suggested the Japanese IR market could reach $40 billion in annual revenue at maturity. That would potentially eclipse even Macau’s $30.9 billion in 2024 GGR. More conservative estimates still predicted $19 billion in gaming revenue and $6 billion in non-gaming.

Global operators responded with predictable enthusiasm. Wynn, Caesars, Genting, and Melco all expressed interest, while the late Sheldon Adelson famously declared he would invest “whatever it takes” to establish Las Vegas Sands’ presence in Japan. The late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe championed the IR programme as a catalyst for foreign investment and tourism development.

Reality proved less obliging.

Public opposition, regulatory complexity, and the Covid-19 pandemic drained momentum from the initiative. Only Osaka and Nagasaki submitted bids in the first round. Nagasaki’s Casinos Austria-led proposal failed due to financing concerns.

New Contenders Emerge for Round Two

Nagasaki Prefecture is expected to return with a revised proposal in the second round. Aichi Prefecture has also signalled its intention to apply after Governor Hideaki Omura withdrew a first-round proposal during pandemic disruptions.

The most intriguing prospect may be Hokkaido, where Governor Naomichi Suzuki reversed his earlier environmental objections. “Circumstances are changing,” Suzuki said last year. “We view IR as a potential project that could contribute to Hokkaido’s development by attracting private investment and boosting tourism-related spending.”

Hard Rock International, which released renderings of a guitar-shaped hotel resort for Hokkaido back in 2019, remains the presumed development partner. Jim Allen, chairman and CEO of the US tribal operator, has positioned the project as both an economic driver and cultural gateway.

Political Support Remains Intact

Current Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a protégé of Abe, has continued her predecessor’s support for the IR programme. Following her election last October, Takaichi reportedly directed Tourism Minister Yasushi Kaneko to “promote IRs and realise attractive stay-type tourism” in Japan.

That political backing may prove crucial as Japan’s IR ambitions enter their second phase. The original three-resort framework envisioned an eventual expansion to ten properties, depending on initial success. With MGM Osaka moving towards its 2030 opening and two additional licences available, Japan’s casino market remains a work in progress rather than the transformational opportunity once envisioned.

The question now is whether lessons learned from the first round will translate into stronger applications and, ultimately, operational resorts.