Macau’s April gross gaming revenue climbed 5.5% year-on-year to MOP19.89 billion. But here’s the catch: the result fell well short of what analysts expected, with VIP hold weakness emerging as the main culprit, according to Seaport Research Partners.

The figure underperformed both Bloomberg Asia’s consensus forecast of 6.5% growth and Seaport’s own earlier projection of 11% expansion. Analyst Vitaly Umansky reckoned that hold-adjusted growth would have reached 10% to 11%, which suggests underlying market strength is being masked by monthly hold variance.

The Hold Problem

VIP performance proved to be the weak link in April’s results. Premium mass segments held their own, but the VIP category suffered from unusually low hold rates during the month. That created a real drag on headline figures despite stable gaming volumes elsewhere. Average daily revenue settled at MOP663 million, below first-quarter averages and very much in line with hold-related headwinds.

Operationally, MGM and Galaxy posted the strongest month-on-month gains, while Sands and Melco likely lost ground. The revenue decline from March to April shows just how much volatility hold fluctuations can introduce into Macau’s monthly performance.

Underlying Demand Signals Remain Intact

Despite the softer headline, Seaport identified no material weakness in underlying demand indicators. April visitation growth tracked around 10% year-on-year, with premium and mass-premium segments continuing to power the recovery narrative. The challenge, though, sits with the broader customer mix. Base mass gaming, particularly from overnight visitors, remains notably depressed versus pre-pandemic levels. So Macau’s growth trajectory depends on higher-end players staying strong.

May Outlook and 2026 Trajectory

Seaport forecast 8.5% growth for May, buoyed by the 5-day May Day holiday spanning May 1-5. Customer trip deferrals from April into May could provide additional support. However, the analyst’s full-year 2026 projection tempers optimism considerably. Growth is expected to decelerate sharply in the second half, with full-year expansion pegged at just 7 percent. First-half growth of 9.9% will give way to only 4.4% in the latter half, reflecting tougher year-on-year comparisons and structural demand constraints.

The recovery is tangible, granted. But it remains top-heavy. Until base mass and overnight visitation rebound more decisively, Macau will continue to hinge on premium segment performance and VIP volatility.