Members of Congress to Be Banned from (Certain) Prediction MarketsA new piece of legislation has been pitched in Congress, with Rep. Nikki Budzinski seeking to have herself and fellow lawmakers restricted from prediction markets – or at least certain prediction markets. Prediction Markets and Members of Congress Targeted in the Same Bill The bill, aptly called the PREDICT Act, will seek to bar members […]
Members of Congress to Be Banned from (Certain) Prediction Markets
Members of Congress could soon be barred from trading on certain prediction markets under new legislation that’s gained bipartisan backing. The PREDICT Act, introduced by Representatives Nikki Budzinski and Adrian Smith, targets what lawmakers are calling a dangerous loophole in financial ethics rules.
The full name gives the game away: the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act. It’s designed to stop elected officials using classified or inside information to profit from political betting markets, plain and simple.
Why Now?
Timing matters here. The bill comes after several dodgy-looking trades raised eyebrows across Washington. Someone made over $400,000 on Polymarket betting on US military action in Venezuela in early January. Similar suspicious activity popped up around Iran.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have scrambled to close accounts linked to these trades, but the damage was done.
The concern isn’t just about making a quick profit. It’s about the potential for classified information reaching foreign adversaries through betting patterns.
Representative Budzinski didn’t mince words: “The American people are tired of politicians using their influence for personal gain, and the rise of prediction markets has made those concerns even more relevant.”
Part of a Bigger Picture
This isn’t happening in isolation. Several bills are now circulating that take aim at prediction markets from different angles.
Representative Mike Levin filed the DEATH BETS Act, which would ban markets on death, war, and crime outcomes. Meanwhile, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis went further with the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, attempting to prohibit sporting event contracts entirely.
The PREDICT Act sits somewhere in the middle. It doesn’t try to shut down prediction markets wholesale. Instead, it creates a specific restriction for people with access to information the public doesn’t have.
What This Means for the Markets
For platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, this adds another layer of compliance. They’re already walking a tightrope with regulators. Now they’ll need systems to verify users aren’t members of Congress or their staff.
The prediction markets industry has exploded over the past two years, to be fair. What started as niche crypto betting has become a legitimate alternative to traditional polling and forecasting. These new rules could actually help legitimise the sector by addressing its most obvious vulnerabilities.
Whether the PREDICT Act passes remains to be seen. But the bipartisan support suggests lawmakers across the spectrum recognise this isn’t about shutting down innovation.
It’s about making sure people with privileged access can’t game the system.
What the team thinks
Carl Mitchell says:
About time someone’s addressed this properly, because letting lawmakers punt on markets they can directly influence is dodgy as a three quid note. From where I sit watching punters chase value every day, the integrity question here matters just as much for prediction markets as it does for traditional betting, and keeping Congress members off these platforms protects both the industry’s reputation and regular players who don’t have insider access. If prediction markets want mainstream legitimacy in the UK and beyond, they need to be squeaky clean on conflicts of interest from the jump.