Macau’s casino sector is set to deliver stronger revenue growth than its main rivals in Singapore and Las Vegas during 2026, according to new forecasts from Morgan Stanley. Profitability, though? That’s a different story for the Chinese special administrative region.

The banking group’s latest research note projects Macau industry gross gaming revenue (GGR) will advance roughly 6% year-on-year in 2026, substantially ahead of the approximately 1% growth anticipated for both Singapore and Las Vegas. The forecast builds on solid momentum from 2025, when Macau GGR climbed 9.1% to MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion) according to official data.

Margin Pressure Undermines Profit Growth

The revenue outlook, however, masks a concerning divergence in profitability.

Morgan Stanley expects Macau’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to increase by a modest 2% in 2026. That represents a marked deceleration from 2025 performance and falls short of broader market expectations.

The analysts identify cost pressures as increasingly structural within Macau’s operating environment, particularly stemming from the market’s strategic emphasis on premium mass clientele. So-called reinvestment costs (including customer incentives and promotional programmes targeting mid-tier players) are exerting persistent downward pressure on operator margins.

Morgan Stanley cites three primary factors constraining EBITDA growth: an anticipated slowdown in GGR expansion during the second half of 2026 due to unfavourable comparatives and continued weakness in base mass business; sustained elevation in promotional allowances; and ongoing non-gaming expenditure requirements tied to the concession obligations Macau’s six operators assumed under their current ten-year licences, which commenced in January 2023.

Outlook Downgrade Reflects Structural Headwinds

The combination of these factors has prompted Morgan Stanley to revise its stance on Macau gaming from “attractive” to “in-line”. Analysts now anticipate lower year-on-year GGR growth from May onwards and potential negative EBITDA growth during the second and third quarters of 2026.

Singapore Market Faces Hold Rate Normalisation

Morgan Stanley’s assessment of Singapore’s duopoly market (comprising Genting Singapore’s Resorts World Sentosa and Las Vegas Sands’ Marina Bay Sands) projects continued volume growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range for 2026. The forecast incorporates sustained strength at Marina Bay Sands alongside the impact of new amenities opening at Resorts World Sentosa.

Despite the new facilities, the bank doesn’t anticipate a meaningful shift in competitive dynamics. Worth knowing: Genting Singapore has failed to capture market share from Marina Bay Sands in recent periods. Critically, Morgan Stanley highlights that Marina Bay Sands reported unusually elevated hold rates throughout 2025, which are expected to normalise in 2026.

This normalisation is projected to offset volume gains, leaving Singapore industry GGR essentially flat and driving an estimated 1% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for 2026. The Singapore market therefore faces a transitional year as statistical anomalies unwind, even as underlying fundamentals remain relatively stable.