Nevada is closing in on forcing Kalshi to cease operations in the state, following the court of appeals’ decision to deny the prediction market platform’s motion for an administrative stay. The ruling clears the way for the Nevada Gaming Control Board to secure a temporary restraining order that would block the company from offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state.

If the Carson City District Court issues the TRO as expected, Kalshi will have to exit Nevada within 14 days, pending a preliminary injunction hearing. The platform would join Polymarket and Crypto.com, which have already been forced out of the state over similar regulatory battles.

Nevada’s Hardline Stance on Prediction Markets

Nevada has taken the most aggressive regulatory approach of any US state when it comes to prediction markets operating outside its traditional gaming framework. Judge Jason Woodbury, who is presiding over the Kalshi case, previously granted the NGCB’s request for a TRO against Polymarket last month. That prompted Polymarket to block Nevada users from its recently launched US service.

The state has also pursued legal action against Coinbase and Crypto.com over their sports markets. Crypto.com exited Nevada last year rather than continue the fight, whilst major operators FanDuel and DraftKings abandoned potential sports betting licenses in the state due to Nevada’s opposition to their prediction market platforms.

Even Robinhood, which offers Kalshi’s markets through its app, agreed to halt its sports markets in Nevada back in November.

Kalshi, however, has remained defiant, insisting it operates under federal jurisdiction rather than state-level gaming regulation.

Federal Jurisdiction Argument Falls Flat

Kalshi’s core legal argument rests on the claim that, as a federally regulated derivatives exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, it should not be subject to state gaming laws. Few states are accepting that position.

The company has suffered setbacks beyond Nevada, with judges in Ohio and Michigan refusing to grant injunctions against state gambling regulators. More seriously, Arizona became the first state to file criminal charges against the company this week. That could embolden other jurisdictions to pursue similar enforcement actions.

A Kalshi spokesperson maintained the company’s position: “States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it. As other courts have recognized and the CFTC affirms, Kalshi is subject to federal jurisdiction.”

Tennessee has granted an injunction against the platform. Massachusetts, by contrast, has taken a more measured approach, allowing Kalshi to continue operating whilst its case proceeds through the courts.

Supreme Court Intervention Unlikely

Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach, who has been closely following these cases, does not expect a definitive ruling from the Supreme Court before the first half of 2028. However, he anticipates “a spate of shadow docket emergency applications to SCOTUS for stay relief this year and next,” with Nevada potentially being the first test case as Kalshi battles for survival in multiple jurisdictions.

Interestingly, Polymarket itself is running a market on whether the Supreme Court will accept a sports event contract case. It’s currently pricing a 27% chance of a hearing before the end of July and 64% by year’s end.

Growth Continues Despite Legal Headwinds

Despite facing an increasingly hostile regulatory environment across multiple states, Kalshi continues to attract serious investment interest. A new round of financing values the company at $22 billion, reflecting investor confidence that the platform will ultimately prevail in its federal jurisdiction argument, or at least secure enough friendly jurisdictions to maintain a viable US business.

The Nevada ruling will likely serve as a template for other state regulators pursuing similar enforcement actions. How this plays out over the coming months will be fascinating to watch, particularly if Arizona’s criminal charges gain traction and other states follow suit with their own prosecutions.