Playtech has lifted full-year EBITDA guidance significantly after delivering first-half results well ahead of market expectations, buoyed by exceptional performance in the US and sustained momentum across Latin America. The gaming supplier now forecasts adjusted EBITDA of at least €270 million for 2026, substantially exceeding consensus estimates of €205 million to €225 million.

Americas Performance Drives Upgrades

The company’s H1 adjusted EBITDA reached over €155 million, driven by what management characterised as “excellent performance” in the United States and “continued strength” across Mexico and Colombia. The acceleration that kicked off in the first quarter extended right through May and June, indicating sustained momentum rather than a temporary spike.

CEO Mor Weizer sounded confident about the company’s trajectory, noting that Playtech continues to establish itself in regulated markets whilst progressing towards medium-term strategic targets. The message from leadership is clear. This is not a flash in the pan, but evidence of a maturing, diversified business model finding its footing across multiple geographies.

Hard Rock Digital Delivers Returns

Much of the American success stems from Playtech’s partnership with Hard Rock Digital, particularly around a sports hybrid gaming offering based on Past Motor Racing results. Being first to market with this product proved commercially decisive. Management expects the Hard Rock relationship to remain a principal revenue driver, though it has guided for revenue to normalise to “lower but more sustainable levels” throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 as the initial investment cycle moderates.

Headwinds on the Horizon

The company has flagged three material headwinds for the second half of the year. First, continued investment in the Hard Rock partnership will weigh on profitability. Second, a significant investment in the Caixa Economica Federal partnership in Brazil is not expected to generate returns until 2027 at the earliest, after the operator’s launch was pushed back from November 2025. Third, Playtech will face the full impact of the UK’s near-doubled Remote Gaming Duty from April 2026.

Consequently, management has guided for lower H2 EBITDA relative to the first half. A conservative approach, admittedly, but one that has impressed analysts reassessing the stock.

Market Reaction

Both Investec and Peel Hunt have responded positively to the trading update. Investec described the results as “exceptionally strong” and argues the stock remains undervalued even following a 14% share price rise. Peel Hunt increased its own FY26 EBITDA forecast by 20% to match management’s new guidance, suggesting Playtech may be being deliberately cautious with its outlook.

The critical narrative emerging is that Playtech’s diversified geographic footprint and product portfolio are finally converting into tangible shareholder value. Hard Rock Digital represents a material upside that the market has yet to fully price in.

What the team thinks

Carl Mitchell says:

Playtech’s guidance lift is impressive, but what’s really striking here is how the Americas expansion is reshaping the entire B2B supplier landscape, and Philippa’s piece rightly flags that this isn’t just about bumper numbers for shareholders. From a player value perspective, when tier-one suppliers like Playtech are firing on all cylinders across multiple regulated markets, it typically means more competitive innovation and better product diversity filtering down to the operators we cover, which ultimately benefits punters getting access to sharper odds and more refined game mechanics. That said, it’d be worth probing deeper into whether this growth is sustainable or if we’re seeing a temporary sweet spot before the inevitable market saturation in regulated US states kicks in.