Prediction markets have hit a proper sticky wicket. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are letting punters trade on episodes of Survivor that were filmed months ago, raising serious questions about insider knowledge and market integrity.

The current season was filmed back in June last year. Contestants sign NDAs with potential penalties reaching $5 million if they leak results. Despite these restrictions, trading patterns suggest information has found its way out.

Ahead of the most recent episode, markets accurately predicted Mike White’s departure from the show.

Nearly $10 Million Traded on Pre-Determined Outcome

The situation gets more interesting when you look at the winner market. One contestant currently sits at 91% odds on Kalshi, with almost $10 million traded. Over at Polymarket, the same contestant holds 89% odds with around $478,000 in volume.

The finale isn’t scheduled until May, but the winner has already been decided.

These platforms aren’t just offering markets on elimination outcomes. Users can also wager on specific dialogue and what participants will say during episodes. The practice extends beyond Survivor, frankly. One of MrBeast’s editors was caught wagering on content from videos he was editing and received sanctions from Kalshi.

Legal Grey Areas and Historical Precedent

Survivor creator Mark Burnett previously took legal action against leakers, filing a lawsuit against Jim Early for exposing information on SurvivorSucks.com. The charges were eventually dropped after Early provided evidence suggesting contestant Russell Hantz was the source. Hantz has denied this and faced no legal consequences.

Kalshi’s market rules explicitly bar show workers and contestants from wagering. However, lawyers speaking to the New York Times highlighted some big grey areas. If a contestant’s neighbour noticed them buying a new sports car and decided to place a bet, that might technically be legal, provided no direct information was exchanged.

A wink in response to a direct question? That could constitute illegal insider trading.

UK Bookmakers Have Steered Clear

British betting firms have long offered odds on politics, entertainment, and numerous novelty markets. They’ve drawn the line at pre-recorded television shows, presumably recognising the integrity issues involved.

American lawmakers are now taking notice. The proposed BETS OFF Act would prohibit platforms from offering markets where participants either know the outcome in advance or control it directly. The legislation also aims to clarify existing bans on markets covering government actions, terrorism, war, and assassination.

Senator Chris Murphy, one of the bill’s sponsors, put it plainly: “There’s no getting around the fact that any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption.”

While Kalshi insists it’s working to combat insider trading, these markets present fundamental problems. Prediction markets built their reputation on forecasting genuine future events. Trading on predetermined outcomes transforms them into something else entirely. Something that looks rather more like insider trading with entertainment packaging.

The platforms may argue they’re simply meeting user demand, but there’s a real difference between predicting election results and wagering on television shows where the outcome already exists on hard drives in editing suites across Los Angeles.